Showing posts with label law school applications. Show all posts
Showing posts with label law school applications. Show all posts

Monday, April 4, 2011

Applications Increase at Colorado

Yes, the headline is correct. While applications elsewhere are falling - to the tune of 11% per year - applications at Colorado-Boulder are up a whopping 12.7%. Of course, the numbers are coming from the school itself, and as we all know from the 'Nova example, people lie. But still, why are people going to Colorado, especially if its neighbor to the east saw a precipitous decline?
“Our faculty continues to focus on a quality educational experience that combines theory and practice,” Dean David Getches says in the release. “When you combine that type of education with our student teacher ratio and our relatively low costs, there is a great value in our education. We believe that is what prospective students are seeing when they choose to apply here.”
Gee, that sounds like almost every other public school in the country.

Incidentally, this more or less shoots down my "part-time/evening" program theory from Saturday, as CU has only a full-time day program.

I really don't get it. The COA is still 43k which is more than Kansas, Wyoming, etc. It's not like the Denver legal market is booming, and it's not like CU grads have any kind of edge in national hiring.

I suppose some school had to keep the application numbers high. Maybe Colorado offered more fee waivers or something, but again, I just don't see the genuine interest.

Saturday, April 2, 2011

What's With the Application Decline Disparity in Pittsburgh?

The Pittsburgh Tribune has run its own story about the law school applications decline, which would be unremarkable except that buried deep a the bottom I found something interesting about the two local Pittsburgh schools:
Charmaine McCall, assistant dean of admissions and financial aid at the Pitt School of Law, said applications are down about 13 percent...

At Duquesne, Law School Dean Ken Gormley said applications declined "a couple of percentage points." The school's evening division might have helped keep the decline from being more dramatic, he said.
Both are located in Pittsburgh, and it's indisputable that Pitt is the more prestigious school. From lawschoolnumbers:
  • Pitt = 158-161 LSAT (25-75); +5% bar passage.
  • Duquesne = 151-154 LSAT (25-75); -11% bar passage.
So why would the application drop be steeper at Pitt than at Duquesne? If you're the Perez Hilton of the legal blogging community, you might try to finding a way to label applicants lazy. Or it also may be true that the Duquesne dean is lying; it's not like there isn't a track record of law school administrators glossing over statistics.

But what if the difference in declines is legitimate? That, despite Pitt being a "better" law school, less people want to go there?

Here is a rather quickly-drawn, late-night-can't-sleep hypothesis: Duquesne, as its dean noted, has an evening program that it advertises prominently. Pitt, so far as I can tell has no evening program. What if the dean was being refreshingly transparent and that evening applications are remaining constant while full-time day division applicants are actually dropping more than the reported 11.6% nationwide?

It makes sense on some level. Current undergraduates and other academics with no particular connection to the law are the weakest applicants in terms of desire; they merely want a job, and frankly any good career option would do. But working professionals already have a job. Many of them work in the legal sector and may be banking on their connections to spring back into the field as an attorney once they get their license. And in any event, if they maintain a full-time job while attending night school, the fear of unemployment shouldn't be expected to obstruct the applicant hell-bent on a J.D.

It's just a thought, but I find it an interesting one at that. If it's true and the gifted undergraduates are turning from the law while the harried professionals continue enrolling in the 2nd- and 3rd-tier programs that have evening divisions, I'm sure that reality will worry quite a few of the T-14 mandarins, especially if those evening students are using their current connections to secure work after graduation.

This would be a very interesting trend if true. Will possibly have to look into this further.

Thursday, March 31, 2011

Yale Applications Down; William Mitchell Goes Transparent

As Above the Law reports today, Yale applications are down nearly 16.5% this year. Naturally, this doesn't quite make sense to Elie Mystal:
The NYT says “stay away from law school,” and applications to Yale drop. But if you read Above the Law, you pick up nuances like “stay away from crappy law schools.” See how much more subtle and informative that is? I know, I know, it bothers me too when the print media sensationalizes things.
No, Elie, you elitist T-14 marketing shill, the point is that it's so bad that even going to awesome schools may be a losing proposition. See, for example, you! People who went to T-14 schools, did well, scored at BigLaw, and were spit out 3-5 years later are a dime a dozen. In a world where even Georgetown has to fudge numbers, you know something's up with the game itself.

But Elie found a "more plausible" reason why there was a catacylsmic drop: Yale decided to start requiring a "dean's certificate" from one's former school:
Ah, now that’s an explanation that comports with what I’ve come to know about prospective law students. For many of them, it’s their first important professional decision; why would they put in the extra work required to apply to the very best law school? Paperwork? Bah. “I don’t want to do no paperwork, I want to be a lawyer.”

Look, I know it seems like I want there to be fewer law students by any means necessary. But really I just want people to be making intelligent decisions.

Not applying to Yale just because it requires more paperwork is not smart. But I suppose the kids not applying to Yale for that reason weren’t going to be Yale Law School material anyway.

Does this idiot honestly believe that otherwise-serious applicants strayed from a tip-top law school because they had to a dean's certificate, something that some other law schools already require, if I'm not mistaken? Seriously?

I know this might be a shock to people like Elie, but it wasn't just the 155 LSATs who are affected by the legal profession's down-turn. Those with 175 LSATs and shiny credentials are less likely to go as well if they understand it (properly) to be a giant crapshoot. If anything, the B.A. holder with the 170+ LSAT is more likely to be able to score a lucrative job absent law school than the 155 LSAT holder. Thus, Yale's prospective applicant pool might drop, as the 165 LSAT kids may not think themselves good enough to even bother.

It's all about alternatives. The kid who can get into Yale often has many of them, meaning there's no reason to take the (increasingly-higher) risk that law will not pan out. Kids lower on the academic totem pole may not have those alternatives and may keep applying to solid schools hoping they can secure a job down the line. Above all else, it's downright stupid to assume that high-achievers are not applying to a top law school because it involved an extra step when the LSAC process is already a bunch of hoop-jumping and the high achievers are more likely to jump through hoops, anyway. How condescending, yet entirely unsurprising.

Elie would, I suppose, rather propagate his elitist worldview that there's something magical about Yale ("Yale Law School material," blech) and the other top schools that somehow immunizes them from a lack of interest in law school unless students are being lazy and irrational.

___________________________________________

In happier news, William Mitchell has decided to be more transparent and has published a wide array of helpful information of its website to better diagnose the school and its propensity for producing quality graduates. Check this out:
  • 67% of reporting employed 2009 graduates hold a position where bar admission is required.
  • Overall average salaries range between $39,000 and $75,000, although there was a steep decline in the number of 2009 graduates reporting information.
  • The 2009 overall average of $58,687 for 176 people includes at least 15 salaries of $100k or more.
  • 11 graduates are working in publishing (Westlaw is in Minneapolis, if I'm not mistaken)
  • 21 are in "solo practice," a dramatic rise from the '06-'07 numbers.
I still think there's some creative accounting going on here (they get 93% employed by discounting people who went back to school and are not seeking work, which to me presents a chicken-egg problem), but overall it's wonderful to have more informative numbers about what is going on.

Clearly, they're still oversaturating the area if only 2/3 of their employed graduates actually need a J.D. The salary information seems far more reasonable, even if it's still on the high side for 50-70% of graduates. I also find it curious that they used to focus on medians and now they're doing averages (I wonder which one is higher...).

The bottom line is that there's no way in heck I pay 50k a year plus interest to have a chance at a job averaging 58k with all sorts of strings attached.

Hopefully more schools will put out detailed information like this, even if it's buried deep on their side. I'll snoop around and see if I can find some others, and I encourage readers to email me if they spot any that I can dissect here.

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Kansas Sees Huge Drop in Applicants: But Is the Quality Improving?

From the Lawrence Journal-World:
KU [law school] extended its deadline by one month, to April 15. Even with that extension, [interim dean] Mazza said the school expects a drop from 15 to 20 percent from last year’s group of about 1,100 applicants.
...
Mazza said he didn’t anticipate significant negative consequences for the school because of the lower number of people interested in applying to KU.

“What we are finding is that the quality of our applications is steady to slightly improving,” he said.

Right. So you decided to extend the deadline because _____ ? If there's no negative consequences, why are you so desperate for more applicants?

KU is a state flagship school that essentially has a monopoly over high-level legal studies in Kansas (no one with an honest choice would go to Washburn or cross the river and go to UMKC). It's fairly cheap, too. If it's seeing a steep drop, that's a major indicator that people are figuring out that not even the main state flagships are worth going to.

But this "quality" argument thrown out by Interim Dean Mazza seems to be the latest and greatest in law school administrator rationalization. For it to be true that a 20% decline would prompt an increase in the quality of the pool, the type of people who applied last year but didn't apply this year would have to be disproportionately lower-qualified (lower LSATs, lower GPAs). That would suggest that there's some sort of significant correlation between desire to practice law and undergraduate academic performance. Somehow, I doubt that. And it seems to me higher-qualified applicants are more likely to pass on schools Kansas and go for T15s like Texas or Michigan, given how crucial prestige is.

Absent concrete evidence, I just don't buy that the quality has anything to do with the seriousness of the applicant. And I'd like to remind the dean that a 20% drop in his applicant pool means they have to broaden their admissions criteria slightly, which will almost certainly lead to a drop in the matriculation pool. That conclusion is almost inescapable unless the 150 LSATs were all apathetic and the 175 LSATs are all gung-ho. If anything, though, it's backwards.

But overall, this is very good evidence that the law school bubble has burst and students are no longer buying into this ridiculous system. Of course, that doesn't mean they can identify what changed:

An article in the New York Times in January seemed to start the conversation, [student Tonda Hill] said. (Mazza said the person profiled in the article didn’t do enough research into law school before beginning his journey.) Other students have blogged about their difficulties in finding jobs.
That article wasn't about a "person profiled." Furthermore, as I've previously pointed out, it's a false conclusion to assume the New York Times article is what caused this. At the time that article came out, almost everyone in the 2011 applicant pool had already taken the LSAT, secured fee waivers and letters of recommendation, and had likely set their mind on applying to law school. Those "other students" [graduates, for the most part] have been blogging for two years in some cases, and they should be given credit for many of those who never started on the "journey" in the first place, not to mention that those blogs are a but-for cause of the New York Times article.

Friday, March 11, 2011

The Power of Anonymous Speech

Among other claims that struck me as odd in the most recent Down by Lawcast, the suggestion was made that anonymous speech (which I'm going to equate to pseudonymous speech for this entry) is limited in what it can do, that credibility is lacking, etc. This is an often-spouted view that has some appeal, but is ultimately wrong.

Let's start with a lesson in history and basic theory:
Anonymous pamphlets, leaflets, brochures and even books have played an important role in the progress of mankind. Persecuted groups and sects from time to time throughout history have been able to criticize oppressive practices and laws either anonymously or not at all.

The obnoxious press licensing law of England, which was also enforced on the Colonies, was due in part to the knowledge that exposure of the names of printers, writers and distributors would lessen the circulation of literature critical of the government. The old seditious libel cases in England show the lengths to which government had to go to find out who was responsible for books that were obnoxious to the rulers.

John Lilburne was whipped, pilloried, and fined for refusing to answer questions designed to get evidence to convict him or someone else for the secret distribution of books in England. Two Puritan Ministers, John Penry and John Udal, were sentenced to death on charges that they were responsible for writing, printing or publishing books.

Before the Revolutionary War colonial patriots frequently had to conceal their authorship or distribution of literature that easily could have brought down on them prosecutions by English-controlled courts. Along about that time, the Letters of Junius were written, and the identity of their author is unknown to this day. Even the Federalist Papers, written in favor of the adoption of our Constitution, were published under fictitious names.

It is plain that anonymity has sometimes been assumed for the most constructive purposes.
--Talley v. California (1960) (paragraph breaks added)
"Don't underestimate the common man. People are intelligent enough to evaluate the source of an anonymous writing. They can see it is anonymous. They know it is anonymous. They can evaluate its anonymity along with its message, as long as they are permitted, as they must be, to read that message. And then, once they have done so, it is for them to decide what is `responsible', what is valuable, and what is truth."
--McInteyre v. Ohio Elections Commission (1995), f.11 (quoting New York v. Duryea).

Anonymous speech can be worthless, of course. But it can also move mountains.

The whole point of using anonymous speech is partly for protection against backlash, true, but in a less cynical description, one may describe the purpose as completely removing criticisms unrelated to the content. A true wordsmith, or believer in a worthy political cause, would want the focus to be on the content and not the speaker.

A signature, however, is irrelevant to content unless some type of expertise, inside knowledge, or personal experience is claimed. In the alternative, one may include a signature in order to gain regard for themselves or to try and bolster their credibility by attaching their name to it. In trying to build and use goodwill for his name, an author is ultimately engaging in a business move, but 95% of the time, the attachment of the name is irrelevant to the content therein.

Rather, attaching one's real name is an authorial decision as significant as any of the substantive content. It binds one's own personal characteristics with the speech and invites both ad hominem attacks and for the listener to give more credence to the words by who's speaking them.

In other words, because this choice alters how most people perceive the speech, it's wrong that we expect everyone to give their name to content before completely discrediting it, just as it's wrong to mandate that everyone say "God bless America" at the end of their speech. That reaction - to discredit anonymous speech when all other variables are equal - is driven by the power-elites who always want someone to hold accountable, to prevent whistle-blowers and others who want to speak truth without having their words unduly jeopardized, either by ad hominem or by their own persecution (at which point the speaker becomes the issue and not the content of his words - see, e.g., the HUAC hearings as an example of this).

Of course such a view invites fringe lunatics to write anonymously, but as the judge noted above, readers are not stupid. If someone writes "buy Microsoft stock, will shoot up 200% tomorrow," no one would believe them, but that's not because it was anonymous, but rather because there's no grounds to believe what it says. The quote could be "Joe Hargish says to buy Microsoft stock, will shoot up 200% tomorrow" and the result would be the same. If it's "Joe Hargish, analyst at Goldman Sachs, says to buy Microsoft," now we have a grounds for credibility.

But the point is that a name is not the only grounds for credibility. You can also gain credibility by having incredibly rational arguments or by presenting a volume of verifiable facts. And a name isn't grounds for credibility itself. For example, let's say you read this:
Let me go to hell, that's all I ask, and go on cursing them there, and them look down and hear me, that might take some of the shine off their bliss.
And I tell you that Glen Beck said it on last night's show. Most people would discard it as rambling anger. But what if I told you Samuel Beckett actually wrote it. Now most people would probably think it's something literary, give a whole new meaning to "them." Anonymous speech wants to avoid this whole evaluative process.

In so-called "scamblogging," anonymous speech has been central to propagating the message. To my knowledge, only two hardcore "scambloggers" have been front and center with their real identities: Scott Bullock of the now-defunct Big Debt, Small Law and Kimber Russell, who, if I recall correctly, "came out" late summer or early fall of 2010. Nando at TTR neither hides his identity nor expressly posts it to the world, but it can be found fairly easily. Other than that (someone correct me if I'm wrong), the scambloggiest of scambloggers remain more or less unknown. Loyola2L, Esq. Never, JD Underdog, Exposing the Law School Scam, Fluster Clucked, Jobless Juris Doctor, "Angel" and "Hardknocks" at BIDER, Jobless Juris Doctor, and Knut at First Tier Toilet, I'm pretty sure these are all anonymous.

I will posit here that, contrary to what Kimber suggested, the scamblog movement only has had its successes because the latter group chose anonymity as a theme.

Law is notoriously elitist, tiered, and approached with a view that "I am better than that person." When people found out Scott Bullock was a Seton Hall graduate, the response was that he should have gone somewhere nicer. But such allegations can't hit someone like Jobless Juris Doctor without making a series of assumptions, and indeed the assumptions become more difficult when (a) the number of anonymous angry bloggers increases and (b) some of the bloggers, like Knut and Angel, claim to be first-tier graduates.

The anonymity thus gave a solidarity and an ambiguity about what class of people was being affected by the "scam," and because a broad range of personalities had been adversely affected by going to law school enough to make blogs about it, the shared claim - that law school is a losing investment - became more credible. You didn't need names to achieve that effect, which is clearly shown by the number of people who have been deterred from going to law school as a result of reading them. And that, after all, was the point.

This is precisely the type of situation that calls for anonymous speech as a powerful tool for change. And it did bring change.

Law school applications dropped 12%. LSAT takers were down by a similar amount. For both of those, you generally prepare at least two or three months in advance. So anything influencing change needed to be present earlier, in November and December.

The much-ballyhooed New York Times article came out on January 8. But because early admission deadlines are generally December 1/15 or January 1, that can't have affected early admission, and the odds that people read an article and suddenly dropped applying to law school when they'd already done all the work seems remote.

Rather, that precipitous drop from the mid-2010 highs had to come from somewhere, and that "somewhere," seems, to me, to come from saturation of these blogs. Whether they have a name on them or not seems irrelevant, since blogs like TTR regularly link to news articles and connect them together with the common thesis: that law school is a losing investment.

If Kimber wants to believe that her 2-3 months of being "out" prior to the number of LSAT takers dropping had a disproportionate effect compared to her anonymous peers, I suppose she's free to do so even if there's no proof that such is true.

But looking at a simple causal chain, the only reason that administrators and other institutional players are willing to talk about change - including giving Kimber the time of day - is that law school applications and LSAT takers are down. If law schools were still pulling in customers at the click they were a year ago, it would be much easier for the ABA to say nothing was fundamentally wrong or in need of change. But because the "scambloggers" created awareness, which caused a drastic drop in customers, now everyone is all-too-willing to change. Law School Transparency was a decent idea, but it would have accomplished nothing without the angry anonymous crowd corroborating its claim and actually deterring people from applying for that $160k job track.

For Kimber to now claim that anonymous speech can't change things is disingenuous. It already has, and it will continue to do so. For if the law schools won't publish accurate data, the most believable perspective may actually come from the collective knowledge of anonymous bloggers, That, if given enough time, will cause actual law applicants to weigh the risks of going to law school where they would if they had accurate data from the schools themselves. And with that, the number of qualified applicants will continue to drop and law schools will be forced (by capitalism, a force greater than personal identity) to lower tuition, lower class sizes, or close. Likewise, USNWR is not changing anything because they got a pleasant phone call from a real person or because LST made a request; they're changing things because their integrity as a news magazine has been under under assault by their collusion with law schools' "Enron-like accounting standards." You can talk to them until they're blue in the face, but until their goodwill is jeopardized, there's no incentive whatsoever for them to do anything.

Those results can come about entirely from well-written, well-placed anonymous speech and it is simply wrong to claim otherwise. Anonymous speech helped convinced a nation to adopt our Constitution against considerable opposition. I think it can handle changing the law school structure and, in fact, it has.