Tuesday, January 4, 2011

VIvia Chen's Crystal Ball for 2011

LegalWeek's Vivia Chen has published a list of 16 predictions for 2011. A rather pessimistic prediction that the status quo will remain intact, they can be summed up like this:
[T]he fundamentals of the legal business are pretty much the same - and will likely remain so for the foreseeable future. Why? Because the economy, while still shaky, has stabilised (sic) for big-firm lawyers - at least for those lucky enough to hold on to their partnership seats during the turbulence - and those old ways are hard to shake.
It's rather hard to argue with that. Those who attain powerful positions do pretty much whatever is necessary to retain their power.

There will be a lot of talk in the coming year about ways to change the legal profession, but ultimately change will not come from within. People who are in the position to change the legal field are simply too biased by their own place in it to effect meaningful change. Such is the peril of self-regulation of a field where the members compete openly on high-pressure business terms. The people on the various committees and at the various conferences may reach various meaningless conclusions, but no one inside the industry and doing well enough to have a position of note has any incentive whatsoever to do a damned thing.

This isn't to say I'm pessimistic. It's just a realization that substantive change has to come from without. It's seems that few outside commentators on the legal field can disagree with that, while many inside the profession recognize it as well.

1 comment:

  1. Lucille Jewel, legal writing "professor" at TTTTT The John Marshall Law School in Atlanta, notes that change may come from outside pressure - including from the scamblogs.

    http://mjlst.umn.edu/

    It sure as hell WILL NOT come from internal ABA meetings, conference reports, committee conference calls, subcommittee "research", and greedy, ENTRENCHED "law professors." They will ALWAYS look out for themselves.

    I work with state leglislators, as part of my job. I know that the politicians have already made up their minds (with the "help" of their donors), and that the hearings are simply for public consumption/smoke and mirrors. "Look, we are holding public hearings, listening to all sides and reviewing all the evidence, pro and con." (Yeah, sure you are - and Lauren Graham's toes locked and she dug her fingernails 1/4" deep into my chest while I gave her ten orgasms in the last 40 minutes.)

    In fact, the major impetus for change will be if the public and law students make such a splash that the federal government will start looking at whether to take the reigns from the ABA.

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