Thursday, March 31, 2011

Yale Applications Down; William Mitchell Goes Transparent

As Above the Law reports today, Yale applications are down nearly 16.5% this year. Naturally, this doesn't quite make sense to Elie Mystal:
The NYT says “stay away from law school,” and applications to Yale drop. But if you read Above the Law, you pick up nuances like “stay away from crappy law schools.” See how much more subtle and informative that is? I know, I know, it bothers me too when the print media sensationalizes things.
No, Elie, you elitist T-14 marketing shill, the point is that it's so bad that even going to awesome schools may be a losing proposition. See, for example, you! People who went to T-14 schools, did well, scored at BigLaw, and were spit out 3-5 years later are a dime a dozen. In a world where even Georgetown has to fudge numbers, you know something's up with the game itself.

But Elie found a "more plausible" reason why there was a catacylsmic drop: Yale decided to start requiring a "dean's certificate" from one's former school:
Ah, now that’s an explanation that comports with what I’ve come to know about prospective law students. For many of them, it’s their first important professional decision; why would they put in the extra work required to apply to the very best law school? Paperwork? Bah. “I don’t want to do no paperwork, I want to be a lawyer.”

Look, I know it seems like I want there to be fewer law students by any means necessary. But really I just want people to be making intelligent decisions.

Not applying to Yale just because it requires more paperwork is not smart. But I suppose the kids not applying to Yale for that reason weren’t going to be Yale Law School material anyway.

Does this idiot honestly believe that otherwise-serious applicants strayed from a tip-top law school because they had to a dean's certificate, something that some other law schools already require, if I'm not mistaken? Seriously?

I know this might be a shock to people like Elie, but it wasn't just the 155 LSATs who are affected by the legal profession's down-turn. Those with 175 LSATs and shiny credentials are less likely to go as well if they understand it (properly) to be a giant crapshoot. If anything, the B.A. holder with the 170+ LSAT is more likely to be able to score a lucrative job absent law school than the 155 LSAT holder. Thus, Yale's prospective applicant pool might drop, as the 165 LSAT kids may not think themselves good enough to even bother.

It's all about alternatives. The kid who can get into Yale often has many of them, meaning there's no reason to take the (increasingly-higher) risk that law will not pan out. Kids lower on the academic totem pole may not have those alternatives and may keep applying to solid schools hoping they can secure a job down the line. Above all else, it's downright stupid to assume that high-achievers are not applying to a top law school because it involved an extra step when the LSAC process is already a bunch of hoop-jumping and the high achievers are more likely to jump through hoops, anyway. How condescending, yet entirely unsurprising.

Elie would, I suppose, rather propagate his elitist worldview that there's something magical about Yale ("Yale Law School material," blech) and the other top schools that somehow immunizes them from a lack of interest in law school unless students are being lazy and irrational.

___________________________________________

In happier news, William Mitchell has decided to be more transparent and has published a wide array of helpful information of its website to better diagnose the school and its propensity for producing quality graduates. Check this out:
  • 67% of reporting employed 2009 graduates hold a position where bar admission is required.
  • Overall average salaries range between $39,000 and $75,000, although there was a steep decline in the number of 2009 graduates reporting information.
  • The 2009 overall average of $58,687 for 176 people includes at least 15 salaries of $100k or more.
  • 11 graduates are working in publishing (Westlaw is in Minneapolis, if I'm not mistaken)
  • 21 are in "solo practice," a dramatic rise from the '06-'07 numbers.
I still think there's some creative accounting going on here (they get 93% employed by discounting people who went back to school and are not seeking work, which to me presents a chicken-egg problem), but overall it's wonderful to have more informative numbers about what is going on.

Clearly, they're still oversaturating the area if only 2/3 of their employed graduates actually need a J.D. The salary information seems far more reasonable, even if it's still on the high side for 50-70% of graduates. I also find it curious that they used to focus on medians and now they're doing averages (I wonder which one is higher...).

The bottom line is that there's no way in heck I pay 50k a year plus interest to have a chance at a job averaging 58k with all sorts of strings attached.

Hopefully more schools will put out detailed information like this, even if it's buried deep on their side. I'll snoop around and see if I can find some others, and I encourage readers to email me if they spot any that I can dissect here.

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

AALS Desperate as Bubble Bursts, Seeks to Halt New Accreditation Standards

If there's one thing that's true when gravy trains end and organizations start shedding people, it's that the everyone suddenly will go to great lengths to explain how important they are.

Hence, a grossly overstated letter by the AALS to Hulett "Bucky" Askew regarding some proposed changes to the ABA's accreditation standards. Props to Paul Caron at TaxProfBlog for hosting it and pointing it out. I'm not going to reprint it all here, but I definitely encourage my readers to check it out for some light chuckles and some sterling examples of "begging the question" or "assuming the conclusion" logical fallacies.

For example, the letter characterizes the SRC's proposal as a "thought experiment" that may undermine the present legal education system. But one must ask: where is the proof justifying the structure of the current legal education system? Is it merely enough that we've done a thing a particular way for decades? I think not.

But that doesn't stop AALS from trying to justify its members' jobs.

Wow, where do I start? Probably by stating the obvious: this is bullshit. There is absolutely no empirical proof that the "scholarship and public service" allegedly carried out by full-time faculty "give [their teaching] an authority" that adjunct teachers cannot. None, nor is the valid reason to assume this. After all, if I have a choice between one professor who actually represents real people in the local federal court and another who hasn't seen a courtroom in 20 years, who is going to have more "authority" behind his teaching? Hint: it ain't the guy who writes journal articles on esoteric theory.

Honest to goodness, law is a professional school designed to teach professional skills. What student ever values someone more because they write an unread article or do public service? And why are adjuncts somehow foreclosed from such things? Many practitioners write more relevant articles than full-tenure professors, anyway, and there's no reason to believe a law professor is any more committed to public service than a non-professor.

"[O]nly full-time career faculty can be expected..." reeks of baseless elitism. To buy into this rhetoric, one would have to assume that there's something truly different about full-time faculty. The entire letter seems to assume this without any empirical proof and relying on dubious conclusions (e.g., that American legal education is "high quality") and outright misstatements (e.g., law is not a "fundamentally public profession").

The point of an American legal education is to train competent lawyers. There is no evidence, nor is there any logical reason to believe, that that goal necessarily requires a full-time tenured faculty. And they do demand their tenure, see p. 5: "[Full-time faculty] remind students of the clients who encounter law and the students' ethical obligations as lawyers, and they facilliate the process of learning about law, lawyers, and the meaning of justice." Again, this can't be done by part-time non-tenured faculty?

There are a variety of other sub-issues (like distance learning and the LSAT), but the gist is that the professors feel threatened by the contemplated changes:

Ah, yes, bureaucratic stalling. Of course, if there were any real discussion of "first principles," the law professors would lose, and badly. Law school is not a scientific academy or a liberal arts college; it is a professional school designed to train people who can actually walk into court and argue and file items on behalf of a client. There is no evidence whatsoever that such a process requires a robust full-time faculty of academics indistinguishable from their liberal arts peers aside from paycheck and the type of elitist condescension on display.

The real factor that "make[s] reform desirable" is that law professors don't actually teach students how to be lawyers. That's a "first principle." To hell with social justice and the "valuable" aspects of legal education if the law schools can't even do that.

Cost, of course, is another factor making broad reforms desirable. This system clearly is not sustainable, and professors that make $200k a year make a very sane target for cuts. But the AALS has a defense for this: it isn't the professors making double their value that increase costs, it's the students and the rascally people in the admissions department:

Translation: before cutting full-time staff, cut career services or scholarships!

Because basically what we have here is a ten-page letter full of fear and bold statements that is absolutely devoid of any substantive proof of what it's claiming. Full-time professors are supposedly just "better" than other options, more ethical, more service-oriented, and more apt to gain expertise (than, you know, the actual people filing claims in court). Most generic students, I suspect, wouldn't be able to tell a full-time tenured faculty member from a part-time adjunct.

All this is is raw, naked self-preservation wrapped in a coat of hollow rhetoric and baseless assumptions about how great legal education has been in the last few decades. I don't necessarily support all the standards changes, but I think they're a move in the right direction and the AALS' attempt to derail them in "let's do a study" hell is shameless and militates against any finding that organizations like the AALS exist for any "public service."

They're clearly not, or else this letter would look radically different.

Kansas Sees Huge Drop in Applicants: But Is the Quality Improving?

From the Lawrence Journal-World:
KU [law school] extended its deadline by one month, to April 15. Even with that extension, [interim dean] Mazza said the school expects a drop from 15 to 20 percent from last year’s group of about 1,100 applicants.
...
Mazza said he didn’t anticipate significant negative consequences for the school because of the lower number of people interested in applying to KU.

“What we are finding is that the quality of our applications is steady to slightly improving,” he said.

Right. So you decided to extend the deadline because _____ ? If there's no negative consequences, why are you so desperate for more applicants?

KU is a state flagship school that essentially has a monopoly over high-level legal studies in Kansas (no one with an honest choice would go to Washburn or cross the river and go to UMKC). It's fairly cheap, too. If it's seeing a steep drop, that's a major indicator that people are figuring out that not even the main state flagships are worth going to.

But this "quality" argument thrown out by Interim Dean Mazza seems to be the latest and greatest in law school administrator rationalization. For it to be true that a 20% decline would prompt an increase in the quality of the pool, the type of people who applied last year but didn't apply this year would have to be disproportionately lower-qualified (lower LSATs, lower GPAs). That would suggest that there's some sort of significant correlation between desire to practice law and undergraduate academic performance. Somehow, I doubt that. And it seems to me higher-qualified applicants are more likely to pass on schools Kansas and go for T15s like Texas or Michigan, given how crucial prestige is.

Absent concrete evidence, I just don't buy that the quality has anything to do with the seriousness of the applicant. And I'd like to remind the dean that a 20% drop in his applicant pool means they have to broaden their admissions criteria slightly, which will almost certainly lead to a drop in the matriculation pool. That conclusion is almost inescapable unless the 150 LSATs were all apathetic and the 175 LSATs are all gung-ho. If anything, though, it's backwards.

But overall, this is very good evidence that the law school bubble has burst and students are no longer buying into this ridiculous system. Of course, that doesn't mean they can identify what changed:

An article in the New York Times in January seemed to start the conversation, [student Tonda Hill] said. (Mazza said the person profiled in the article didn’t do enough research into law school before beginning his journey.) Other students have blogged about their difficulties in finding jobs.
That article wasn't about a "person profiled." Furthermore, as I've previously pointed out, it's a false conclusion to assume the New York Times article is what caused this. At the time that article came out, almost everyone in the 2011 applicant pool had already taken the LSAT, secured fee waivers and letters of recommendation, and had likely set their mind on applying to law school. Those "other students" [graduates, for the most part] have been blogging for two years in some cases, and they should be given credit for many of those who never started on the "journey" in the first place, not to mention that those blogs are a but-for cause of the New York Times article.

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

How Not to Do a Value Survey

This U.S.N.W.R. article seeks to find which schools are the best values by looking at the median salary to average debt ratio. Right away we have a methodology problem by comparing an average to a median. Another problem is that the survey includes only private sector salaries, ignoring the sizable amount of government workers who have salary/debt ratios well below one.

The worst problem, of course, is that they're using the schools' horribly flawed, self-reported numbers.

Here's the list for giggles:

1. Southern U.
2. Georgia State
3. Rutgers-Camden
4. Texas Southern
5. Brigham Young
6. North Carolina
7. Texas
8. Loyola-New Orleans
9. Georgia
10. California-Berkeley

There's like four or five of these that make sense. Anyone who thinks Southern U. Law Center grads are making five times their debt load after graduation is a fool, and if anyone can prove to me that Loyola-New Orleans median grads are actually making 84k a year with only 45k in debt (total cost full time is 45k a year and less than 20% get juicy scholarships on the tuition part), I'll eat my computer piece by piece and then move to Louisiana.

Garbage in, garbage out. If anyone actually did this survey honestly, perhaps only 15-20 schools would have salary/debt ratios over 1.0.

Monday, March 28, 2011

On Legal Technology and Conservatism

I'm back from my brief vacation, and today I'd like to first point out an informative, yet somewhat repetitive, article from Texas Lawyer about trends in the legal industry. What really caught my eye is this tidbit on lawyer technology:
E-Discovery Costs: The annual litigation survey published by Fulbright & Jaworski reports that nearly 40 percent of the respondents expressed the need to increase spending on electronic discovery. This concerns them, given the already high cost. As one possible solution, a few firms are partnering with e-discovery vendors because they believe it is cost-effective for both the client and the firm.
Keep that in mind. Next, I'd like to point out this tidbit from a recent article on legal research, entitled "Legal research moves from the print library to expensive digital databases:"
This same generation is now leading the legal industry's leap to the Web -- a revolution with major implications for clients, bringing more firepower to those who can afford it and more headaches to those who can't.

"Today, virtually 100 percent of practitioners use online research," said David Dilenschneider, who oversees content development for LexisNexis. "You really cannot practice in books these days. It isn't doable because of the risk of missing information."

LexisNexis and Westlaw provide massive databases of statutes and judicial opinions, plus proprietary goodies like analyses and explanations.

It's that proprietary content, along with advanced search algorithms and other fancy tools, that make the two services the most effective in the industry -- and the most expensive.

First, the "proprietary content" is available for free in brick-and-mortar libraries if you already know directly where to look, and you can find it in about 30 seconds. The advantage of the online services is mostly speed and volume, being able to search thousands of cases and documents at once for key phrases. The most valuable "proprietary" services are probably the ones that tell you if something has been overruled or not, and maybe the notifications on new cases in a particular area, but neither of these is impossible to the layman without the services.

Second, it's a really odd time to complain about the expense of Lexis and Westlaw. Why? Well, because both are facing significant competition from free sources and have had to take measures to keep traffic up. Westlaw has introduced WestlawNext, which is dramatically cheaper and provides more services, not necessarily because old Westlaw was bad, but rather because they feared losing customers to free sources. Lexis decided to start a free service, called LexisOne, that's basically a large archive of caselaw.

Contrary to the implication of both of these articles, technology is a cost-saver over the long term. The cost "raises" in both legal research and in discovery is because the technology was fundamentally abused, or used not as a tool of efficiency.

In legal research, both Westlaw and Lexis used the technology more or less as an excuse to jack prices. While sets of books under the old system of expansive law libraries were not cheap, it was a one-time expense to purchase the book and there was something of a secondary market that could exist for the volumes (from law offices closing or law libraries updating their collections) and for those resourceful enough to go to a law library, there was very little access cost. The existence of the internet changed that by letting Westlaw and Lexis charge for mere access to the materials and not just ownership.

Of course with the internet and what are, ultimately, readily-available materials for the resourceful, that set-up can't last, and it didn't, and that's why both services are desperate to retain customers now in a dwindling marketplace.

The same basic idea applies to discovery abuses. I know less about complex litigation than legal research, but it seems to me that the advent of the internet did not make discovery more expensive aside from broadening what discovery could include. The most obvious example of this, to me, is e-mail. Previously, 99% of what is sent over e-mail would have been phone conversations without record or would have never been sent or would have been used and discarded. Now there's terabytes of data storage of useless shit that plaintiffs want to get at for that microscopically small fraction that may be useful. That's not technology making a process more expensive, it's the people using it changing their behavior.

In theory, computerized technology should lower costs and it should be fairly straightforward if basic ethical principles are plainly laid out, but it hasn't immediately been readily adopted or accurately priced in the legal profession, and there seem to be no shortage of seminars or symposiums or verbal sewage about the implications of technology, as if the legal profession is run by antediluvian buffoons.

Because largely, it seems, it is. From the first article I cited:

Social Media: Issues are arising. Clients are increasingly asking for counsel on employees' use, and the management, of social media. Firms are now recognizing the need to develop electronic and social media policies for themselves.There are ethics considerations. There are challenges for lawyers in maintaining the confidentiality of client information. And there are many issues with respect to the use of social media in litigation. One report may have summed it all up: "The law has significantly lagged behind social networking."
Really, there aren't "many issues" unless you start making them up. How hard is it to tell people not to post something on facebook about a client? Or to develop a social media policy? It's really no different than telling employees not to gossip about clients at the coffeehouse, is it? Basic ethical principles applied to a new setting; this is not new.

And who is "the law?" It isn't students, ground-level working attorneys, or the like. It's the regulators, the wizened old men who like to spout platitudes with no substance, and, ultimately, the bar associations run by "seasoned veterans." Together, they implant a very conservative, retrogressive way of doing business, where new technologies are hostile because they all bring major ethical crises (real or fictional) and concocted expenses.

If the legal profession were really concerned with justice, it would welcome new technologies and the cost-savings associated with them. Furthermore, you virtually never hear any of the legal talking heads suggest that technology make actually improve ethics considerations even though, in some cases, it becomes easier to comply with ethical mandates as technology advances.

But the legal profession really isn't concerned with access to justice or cost savings or ethics; it, like every other profession, is concerned with keeping the kings of the hill at its profitable apex. Any tectonic shift may shake them from their place, and it's better to keep litigation costs artificially high. Because those in the business have an incentive to keep the status quo, the market was slow to respond to the need for cheaper research tools and cheaper e-discovery mechanisms.

This system also snakes its way into law school corridors. Properly using technology could result in major cost savings in legal education. For example, textbooks are now archaic fossils no longer necessary; all the materials needed for a legal education can be found by plugging into the internet and bringing a moderately-priced laptop to class. And yet, the thick >$100 volumes persist, a tremendous waste of resources, time, and energy. Worse, some people have the audacity to suggest that technological advances are making a legal education more expensive. That's out-and-out bullshit and a lousy justification for the rampant tuition increases of the last 15 years.

While it's not the biggest of the profession's problems, the fact that crusty Luddites seem to disproportionately work as lawyers compared to other professions seems to cause more problems than it solves.

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

NC State Cuts Pre-Law Advising; Silly Responses Abound

So N.C. State has decided to cut its pre-law advising service, which - to me - is perfectly understandable given that (1) there's no real need for a separate pre-law advising department aside from normal advisers and (2) almost every state in the union has to slash public expenditures. I genuinely feel sorry for the long-term adviser who will lose her job, but I have to say some of the responses in the article are downright absurd.

The first one isn't that bad:
"When I found out [pre-law services] were getting cut, I was pretty shocked about it. They have done so much for me," [senior Erin] Walker said. . . ."I didn't know what I needed to do to get ready to go to law school. I was completely lost," Walker said.
Did pre-law services take your LSAT for you? Did they get you a high GPA? No? Then, despite appearances to the contrary, they really haven't done that much for you. But it's understandable that one would think that. After all, law school is a long, glorified disabusing process. You start a doe-eyed undergraduate with one slate of perceptions and when you're through the meat grinder you realize a variety of truths, including that there are very few things that actually matter when it comes to getting into law school. Furthermore, if you're "completely lost" in dealing with schools' websites and LSAC, which are straightforward about a simple process, you're going to be even more lost when you try to figure out what the governing law is on some issues.

And then we have this:
Melanie Nutt, director of admissions and financial aid at the Wake Forest University School of Law, said she wants her name added to the letter to the Provost. She reinforced the impact of losing Tetro and pre-law services on N.C. State.

"Losing Mary [Tetro] would be a real blow to the students and to the law schools as well," Nutt said. "[Tetro] has just been a phenomenal resource."

No kidding. You're losing an inside sales person at the state's 2nd-biggest public school. Already, one should note a theme in the article: no one is actually articulating what pre-law services actually did that was so indispensable for N.C. State students. Instead, they merely dish out platitudes like "it was so valuable" and "losing this sucks." Seriously, are N.C. State students so utterly dumb they can't figure this stuff out? Do none of N.C. State's other advisers have an hour to read up on law school?

I did not have pre-law services in undergrad, so I honestly have no idea what they do for you and - again - I see no pressing need to have one. But apparently others do - even if they can't articulate why:

"Cutting something in a big college, like engineering, would be more efficient, because they have so many resources," [senior Harrison] Do said. "If you cut this small, little thing that helps so many students, that to me isn't being very efficient."
Efficient? Efficiency is about resource maximization and waste reduction. I don't care how many programs there are in the engineering college, they're probably all a better use of resources than a pre-law department. Again, I'm sorry a dedicated educator is losing her job, but a pre-law advising service is basically $350k down the sinkhole. Every second a student spends in there would be better spent figuring out LSAT tricks, studying for higher undergraduate grades, or chatting it up with bored professors to get better letters of recommendation.

One of the biggest problems in education - legal and otherwise - is that when someone says "we really need [x]," too few people stand up and say "bullshit." Guaranteed government-driven revenues have never encouraged thrift, and so now we have bloated university structures with all sorts of useless centers and services that are economic deadweights but - oh no! - we can't cut them because we actually hired nice people to fill those positions.

Well, if schools had any interest in teaching their students about the real world, they'd be far more aggressive in shedding excess baggage when budget cuts proved necessary, and they'd be far more hostile to people who try to tell them otherwise. No one in the private sector ever had his job saved because he was a good person or even good at his job in isolation. The fact that we treat public/non-profit university employees differently when many states are flat broke is absurd.

Saturday, March 19, 2011

When BigLaw Fails: Howrey

You might have missed it, but last week, but Howrey, the 50th largest law firm in the United States and a major player in Washington D.C. litigation, voted to dissolve.

Steven Pearlstein of the Washignton Post has a nice postmortem that hypothesizes what went wrong:
Howrey expanded too much too fast, its overhead expenses growing even faster than its revenue....

Fixed costs are a challenge for all law firms, but particularly so for litigation firms such as Howrey that can’t count on a relatively steady flow of work from corporate clients — leases to review, mergers to handle, securities filings to make. Revenue in the litigation business tends to be lumpy. You get paid only when there is a case to be tried and then often only after the trial is over. Howrey, in particular, had come to rely increasingly on revenue from such contingency fee cases, which rose to $35 million in 2008 and then fell to $2 million a year later.

Pearlstein also notes that Howrey ran into conflicts of interests problems as it grew, as well as a weak partnership in general that was not as committed to the firm itself as the partners were committed to themselves. This paragraph in particular struck me as interesting:

For me, it is of symbolic and substantive importance that law firms are no longer partnerships in the strict legal sense. Most, like Howrey, had transformed themselves into “limited liability corporations” or “limited liability partnerships,” a new hybrid form of business organization. Unlike old-fashioned partners, those in an LLC or LLP are shielded from individual responsibility for the liabilities of the firm. That means that they are apt to be less careful in making decisions about what risks and expenses to take on, knowing they do not face the prospect of losing all of their net worth.
This seems to be yet another instance where the respective bar associations rubber-stamped fundamental changes to the legal profession without fully digesting the consequences. When state legislatures started adopting the LLC and LLP business formats, law firms were some of the first on the boat (at least on the latter), and I wonder if anyone actually voiced opposition, claiming there was intangible value in the general or limited partnership structure (I'm not sure about this, nor am sure how law firms that operate as corporations play into it - will have to research in the future). But I will say that it's clear many intangible values in the legal system got left on the side of the road as excess baggage on the speedy voyage to multinational, 1000-firm behemoths.

But what about the future of the BigLaw model? As the Howrey example suggests, large firms dependent on big-money litigation to see profits have a volatile existence. It also seems to me that such firms are going to be more dependent on ace litigators who may have incentives to use the firm's resources to build their reputation and then spin off on their own when their own value exceeds that of their peers.

This seems, to me, like a problem stemming from law firms trying to run themselves like normal businesses. Law is analogous to sales in that your rainmakers rake in clients that the entire firm benefits from. However, a routine salesman has little power to leave because his future success is tied to continuing to sell the product, which is ultimately company property. Law doesn't work that way; the "product," the rainmaker's loyal and devoted service, is not really unique property of the firm. Thus, such a model fails. The cynic in me thinks that people realized this a long, long time ago and that's why law firms went towards partnership structures (liability for each others' debts promotes cooperation; tighter controls on people leaving) while other businesses incorporated as a matter of course, but I digress...

But what about transactional law firms? Surely, there's a BigLaw future for the white shoe operations that handle securities filings, mergers, etc., isn't there? For the most complex scenarios, yes. But my hunch is that transactional business profits will dwindle in the coming years as automation becomes an even greater force in the legal profession. If places like legalzoom can offer wills now, what's to say Fortune 500 companies won't figure out how to simplify all the transactional business they have to do? Securities filings are fairly standardized anyway. With more sophisticated electronics, I can't see 500+ attorney firms being a necessity for large companies in the future to do their routine transactional stuff. Heck, every company on the NYSE/Nasdaq/Amex would benefit if someone found a way to cut out the white shoe lawyers, and with increasingly-impressive computer technology, I'm sure someone will find the armies of Harvard and Columbia grads completely unnecessary.

Remember that most BigLaw have higher operating costs and overhead to even play the game, thus making them more susceptible to significant shifts in revenue. A solo P.I. attorney can feed his family on one or two juicy settlements. Not so at the top firms.

With it appearing that 2010 may have seen the peak of law school applications, perhaps it's time to ask if we're also seeing a peak in large law firms. I honestly don't know for sure, but given the confluence of certain events, it seems like a good possibility.

For further reading on this topic, I'd recommend a recent post over at the Legal Dollar citing the recent demise of several big firms and how to look for stability in a law firm.

Friday, March 18, 2011

Virginia Law Weekley's Dan Gocek on Above the Law

Dan Gocek at Virginia Law Weekly has an interesting rant on Above the Law:
What I dislike about Above the Law is its penchant for encouraging distaste and resentment between various groups of people, such as students from different schools or those with jobs and those without. This can be seen in posts such as their “Douchiest Law School” competition, in which students presumably with very little knowledge of schools other than their own vote on which law school they think is the “douchiest.”
...
[A] large percentage of the posts on Above the Law displaying this sort of ignorant obnoxiousness seem to be penned by Mr. Mystal, who, in another post, claims that he and his wife’s combined salary of nearly $250,000 does not provide him with enough money to buy a decent computer. Although I’m normally not very sympathetic to those who complain about money troubles while simultaneously admitting to living “as far above their means as possible”, the idea that Mr. Mystal doesn’t have a 42” Mac desktop on which to write this fecal matter posing as language really brings a tear to my eye.
Encourage you to go and read the whole thing. Great stuff. I don't really disagree with it, and I don't really have much to add.

Thursday, March 17, 2011

The "Market" Does Not Drive Law Professor Salaries High

A few days ago, someone a level-headed, but misguided, anonymous comment on my post about the UNLV budget cuts:
(2) Law professors are indeed paid more than virtually any other professional/grad school instructors --- because the market provides that. Med School instructors earn a lot, too, for the same reason. They can go elsewhere or go into the profession itself (practice medicine, practice law) and be paid better than they are as professors. The world might well be a better place if the dedicated professor of whatever stripe were paid the same, be that person a teacher of philosophy, art, literature, or law --- and if all those professors were paid the same as someone who practices as an attorney --- but the market isn't that way.
First, this is a straw man - I never advocated that all professors be paid equally, nor would I.

Second, and more importantly, the "market" is not what dictates that law professor salaries are some of the highest in the business. If normal market forces were actually applied to legal education, professor salaries would drop immediately. Why? Well, the system has been producing an excess of 10k+ people each year who are qualified to teach the subject matter. In some cases, the excess actually being more qualified in the particular subject matter because they've recently passed a stringent bar exam that actual law professors have not.

Law is not brain surgery. There are thousands of people, many of whom are unemployed and have otherwise-great credentials, who are perfectly qualified to teach torts, property, legal research, and anything other than the most sophisticated courses. In normal supply-and-demand terms, there is a massive oversupply and fairly low demand. The nation only needs about 650-800 people who can teach contracts or torts or civil procedure each year, but there are literally thousands upon thousands of qualified people who would gladly take those jobs.

And it's not like people don't want the job. Tenure, even at a fourth-tier toilet, is a career landmark. Elite-graduate BigLaw associates regularly run back to academia after 3-5 years, sometimes because they aren't working out and other times because they'd just rather work a relatively easier schedule for a very handsome wage than work a mind-breaking schedule for a slightly handsomer wage. Assuming it's true that law professors could make more in private practice, many of them would regularly turn down the lucre for allegedly-lower salaries teaching law school. But that is NOT a valid reason to keep law professor salaries high. If anything, it provides a reason why law professor salaries should be lower, namely that, apparently, there are job perks that compensate the attorney for the lower salary.

But we don't even have to address that logical fallacy because there's a bigger one before it: most law professors would not make what they make as faculty members in private practice. Many of them became law professors solely because they couldn't make bank in private practice. It's not uncommon to have law teachers who aren't even members of the state bar. And the option to be an adjunct professor seems to cut out any possibility that tenured law professors are regularly leaving large sums of money on the table. Honestly, human nature being what it is, no one is going to leave 500k+ on the table to take a law professor job for "only" 200k, especially when the professor could make the 500k+ and teach a class or two in order to meet their desire to educate the next generation. A lot of good teachers do just that, and for the most part those not affiliated with BigLaw aren't making it rich.

Above all, the schools' only actual task is to teach its students how to be lawyers. Law professors generally have no requirements beyond having a J.D., and very few law schools require that their professors were actually successful in practice. Nor did they have to take - or do well - in the class they now teach. As the market for legal services shrinks and the number of bar members increases, it's simply absurd to continue paying professors $150k+ for a job that would have no shortage of qualified applicants if it listed for $65k and benefits.

But as we all know, there are forces that distort the market at play. First is the tenure system, whose place is secured by the ABA and the AALS and ensures that certain members of the old guard will be back next year. Second, there's this absurd emphasis on "prestige" driven mostly by things like the US News and World Report rankings. There's no natural need for law professors to have studied at a T-14 and yet, for the most part, those are the people who wind up on the faculty rolls. This focus unduly narrows the labor pool, which is a factor is having higher salaries. This is, of course, ridiculous. No real business operates this way. If you need a plumber, you don't care who went to the best trade school. You care only who can fix the damn pipes. Teaching torts should be no different.

And yet it is. The schools can get away by being thriftless and overpaying people who have relatively cushy, low-stress jobs because they themselves are exempt from normal market forces. Specifically, demand becomes artificially inflated because loans are more or less guaranteed. Meanwhile, the law schools have a monopoly that limits supply only to those who agree to their principles regarding things like professor tenure. This allows the schools to raise prices and force consumers to essentially subsidize their professors' unduly high salaries.

Thus, it is only because there are significant market distortions that law professors are paid what they are. The market is not dictating anything; on the contrary, the powers that be prevent the market from actually functioning properly.

Third, I'd like to reiterate the problem with UNLV's budget proposal. Whereas the dental school decided to cut faculty salaries - even though there is a much lower supply of dentists than there is lawyers - not one law professor was going to have his salary decrease as a result of the cuts. Not one, even though an analogous professional trade school with stricter entrance requirements willingly cut faculty salaries. That is blatant fiscal irresponsibility by the university. It's also a disregard for their moral duties as educators and a slap in the face to any notion of "social justice."

If the UNLV law professors can make more money in private practice, they should quit immediately. But I don't believe that, and neither should anyone else. And even if it were true, it would be best for everyone if they went to private practice and let the university hire others at lower salaries.

After all, like I said, it isn't like there's a shortage of people who can do this work; this isn't quantum physics. Throw a rock on the strip and you'll probably hit an attorney who can teach legal writing. The fact that current law professors have set up a white collar union that has suckered people into believing they're worth the cost doesn't change that fact.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

US News and World Report Torn Between Shilling and Journalism

I get that US News and World Report has little actual news or commentary to offer aside from being known as the publication that helps market colleges by ranking them, but at least they could have a consistent editorial view.

For example, this article describes how law schools are adjusting to a "suddenly dog-eat-dog job market" (Really, David van Zandt? "Suddenly?") and a changing BigLaw model.
Starting salaries are flat or down, too, according to NALP—the Association for Legal Career Professionals in Washington, D.C. The median starting pay at firms with more than 700 lawyers in New York and Los Angeles was still $160,000 in 2010, but markets like Boston and San Francisco dropped from that level back to $145,000. Overall, the median starting salary at private firms dropped to $115,000 last year from $130,000 in 2009.

Belt-tightening at larger firms has had a ripple effect, pushing grads to pursue government and nonprofit jobs they previously wouldn't have considered. "I feel that I'm competing with everybody, for every job I've applied for," says Jeremy Wolff, 31, a 2010 graduate of Northeastern University School of Law in Boston who left a technology career to focus on civil rights or social justice work. He currently is working as a research consultant with a team of professors from his law school, covering his living expenses but not providing enough to begin paying down his six-figure debt. "If I knew then what I know now, I would emphatically not go to law school," he says. "I think the legal job market has fundamentally changed."

Okay, so overall, nationwide, starting salaries at private firms have dropped 11.5% in two years. That's big, as is the fact that the graduates now denied BigLaw compete with other graduates for all those other jobs, like whatever work there is at the DA's office, MidLaw, or legal aid foundations. That trajectory should be a priority concern for anyone contemplating applying for law school now.

Now let's head to US News and World Report's Law Schools: Tips and Stats:

First year associates at large private law firms can expect to make $160,000 in metropolitan markets including New York, Chicago, and Washington, D.C., according to the Association for Legal Career Professionals, known as NALP, in its 2010 Associate Salary Survey. In other markets, such as Boston and San Francisco, salaries can range from $110,000 to $160,000, with a median of $145,000.
First of all what a "large private law firm" is to a prospective law student is probably different than what a "large private law firm" is to the NALP. And wouldn't it be responsible to mention that the $145,000 is a falling median? And isn't it irresponsible to suggest applicants now - i.e., job seekers in 2014 - "can expect" to make $160,000 when salaries have fallen in other markets?

And overall, the "article" seems to be a blatant advertisement for going to law schools, e.g.:

If you are set on a career in public interest law, don't let finances stop you.
You mean like the "finances" that there's very little actual work in public interest law?
Intellectual property and energy law continue to be lucrative—and competitive—specialities [sic].
If it's competitive, it's likely not going to be lucrative in the future. See the other article your same news organization put out the exact same day.

My big question to US News is this: Why did the first article I cite espouse a view that there has been a fundamental change in the job market, while the second article sold law school on the premise that the job market is pretty much moving right along, i.e., getting back to the pre-recession normal? ("many partners at large law firms agree that the market has nearly stabilized.")

All these articles seem to show is US News' apparent hypocrisy. On one hand, it feels beholden to its journalistic routes, finding it necessary to report truth and - gee whiz - cite its sources. On the other, it realizes its existence is dependent on the college industry continuing to sell the idea of education as the path to a dream job. To hell with journalistic integrity (Who at the "large law firms" are agreeing with this? Who knows! Just say "Many").

I appreciate their attempt at journalism. The first piece is insightful and should be required reading for those contemplating attendance. But it's hard to take that piece seriously when the same organization trumpets law school as the land of public interest saviors and $160,000 salaries as if it were reading from a admission's department brochure.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Is Reverse Auctioning Coming to Legal Profession?

It appears so-called "reverse auctions" are entering the legal field, where prospective clients can present their case and attorneys can bid to do the service for them.

This is from the ABA Journal:
[Robert Grant] Niznik’s graduation musings led him to contemplate the plight of indebted law students struggling to find a job in a bleak economic climate as well as the expensive and largely inaccessible nature of the legal profession. His answer to both issues is at once goofy and serious. The New York Law School student founded Shpoonkle, a playfully named website that allows attorneys and law firms to bid on legal requests submitted by clients. The service is free for now, but Niznik said attorneys may be charged membership fees in the future.
"Shpoonkle" is a horrible, horrible name, and I think there are numerous potential pitfalls that have to be overcome (e.g., the clients' incentives to lie seems higher than if they're in a one-on-one initial consultation, and if the lawyer's aren't allowed to ask questions before bidding, I could see the site becoming a platform for misrepresentation). However, the fact that people are developing such technologies should surprise no one, and I think this is a positive sign that the real dangers of lawyer oversupply may become present.

By way of example, I'd like to discuss the sports card market's collapse in the early 90s. For example, in 1990-1993, a Ryne Sandberg 1993 Topps rookie card was "worth" approximately $35-40 in mint condition according to price guides that monitored the market. By the late '90s, the price had dropped dramatically (to $15 or so) and today - even after Sandberg has been inducted into the Hall of Fame - one can buy a Sandberg rookie card for about $4.00 on eBay. Sandberg's career trajectory cannot explain that by itself, as the same phenomenon can be witnessed in the value of other cards from the 70s, 80s, and 90s (e.g., this card once went for $100+). Factoring in inflation, that's a major collapse.

Why did it happen? The initial knee-jerk reaction might be that the strike of 1994 and the steroid era forever ruined baseball's popularity. But the same effect can be seen in other sports as well (see this, for example). Rather, what happened in the mid-90s was that the development of the internet (specifically eBay) destroyed the supply/demand illusion that previously dictated prices. See, prior to eBay, sports card values were set by price guides (like Beckett), who purported to monitor sales. People involved in private one-on-one transactions had no idea what the true supply of these cards was, and often the demand was overstated; such is very easy to do with there is limited information about the supply and demand of an object.

When eBay came around, it destroyed that market illusion by showing the market that the supply was much greater than anyone thought and the demand was actually much lower than anyone thought. It provided a superior means of determining supply and demand (ergo price), ultimately benefiting consumers at the expense of those who had been stockpiling sports cards on the false belief that these things would be valuable at some point in the future.

Now apply to law. What does good legal representation cost? Aside for the more "routine" services (simple chapter 7, llc drafting, basic real estate transactions, etc.), no one has a damned clue. Indeed, the ambiguity involved in legal representation - the fear that lawyer costs may skyrocket - inhibits a lot of people from seeking attorney aid. And when someone sits down with a lawyer in a one-on-one setting after a consultation, the potential client lacks any power to bargain if the lawyer says his services cost $200.00 an hour.

This set-up is a market illusion, just as the baseball card market was before eBay. The consumer (client) has no idea what the actual supply of legal services is. The lawyer is thus in a superior position to argue that his particular services are in high demand and short supply, even if they aren't.

If there were a reverse auction site set-up - not just this Shpoonkle thing, but also LawyerBid is in the game - prices for everything worth taking except the most complex litigation will drop. Why? Because lawyers are a competitive bunch and there are more licenses floating around than are necessary to service the current demand for legal services. People are, overall, cheapskates. If one barred lawyer can represent someone for half the price of another - and the individual can see the cost savings in black-and-white - that consumer isn't going to care who went to Harvard and who went to Cooley.

This is the nation of Wal-Mart and McDonalds. Prestige has nothing on cost savings, and not even Fortune 500 companies will turn down lower legal fees if they're clearly being overcharged. Right now, there's a market illusion that keeps people from seeing that they're being overcharged. If an auction site were set up, that illusion is gone.

This, of course, would be great for notions of "justice" and providing access to new parties, but, you see, the people at the high end are obviously worried. Or just ethically-minded attorneys in general. From Simple Justice:
By no means does the need for money make this a justifiable mechanism. It is anathema to what the legal profession is supposed to stand for, implicates a wide variety of unpleasant ethical considerations and reflects a further step, maybe giant step, away from excellence toward commodity. Yet my fear is that the lawyers who would sign up for this mutt couldn't care less.
...
I find it hard to blame some anonymous entrepreneurial law student from putting together this horrible idea. He's just trying to make a buck, and the creation of this new concept doesn't compel lawyers to sign up, lawyers to outbid each other to see how low they can go, lawyers to try to glom up cases in areas where they lack competency or lawyers to provide less than stellar services. It doesn't require that things go horribly wrong. But we all know they will.
That's my gut reaction as well, but let's face some facts. Law's professionalism went out the window a long time ago. The profession is now over saturated with 15k excess graduates every year in a market that is threatened to shrink by both outsourcing and technological advances.

And yet, attorneys at the top of the food chain still make a very good living, both the BigLaw partners and those working is solo firms at so-called "boutiques." There are absurd inefficiencies and market illusions harming consumers while the practitioners most burdened by the oversupply of attorneys is carrying a disproportionately heavy amount of non-dischargable debt acquired by entering the "profession."

Real professions don't set up situations such as that. Instead, they regulate who can enter the profession in order to ensure that there are few licensed professionals who struggle to make a living or pay off the costs of join the profession. The legal profession discarded that principle when it opened law school to any Joe and Betty with a 150 LSAT and a federal loan application. It cannot now hide behind professionalism as a shield to keep normal business conditions for penetrating every inch of the "profession" in a veiled attempt to keep billable hour rates unduly high.

At some point, something has to give.

I don't think this site will be a success. Indeed, as Simple Justice points out, other sites like this have failed previously, and I see too many ethical hurdles that may kill this site, especially if bar associations start looking after their interests and prohibit participation in these sites to maintain illusive values.

But people can't live in the dark forever, and you can't keep pumping out attorneys (i.e. supply) without prices, and therefore salaries, collapsing at some point. Maybe reverse auctions won't do it, but something will accelerate the race to the bottom that can already been seen in some areas.

Monday, March 14, 2011

Quinnipiac to Retain Felon Administrator

Yesterday, I reported on Mary Ellen Durso, who, despite being found guilty of fraud and tax evasion to the tune of $126,000, was only getting three years of probation.

Today, we find out that Mary Ellen Durso will get to retain her job as Registrar and Dean of Academic Affairs.
Mary Ellen Durso will stay on board as Quinnipiac’s Law School registrar after being sentenced to three years probation for bank fraud and conspiracy, according to Law School Dean Brad Saxton....

“I have conducted a careful review of the situation and continue to have complete confidence in Dean Durso’s ability to perform her duties here responsibly,” Saxton said in the e-mail, sent out to law students, faculty and administration.

Pardon my French, but what the fucking hell. Quinnipiac is running an organization whose sole purpose is to groom future professionals who have to pass a character and fitness test and maintain standards of responsibility. If a lawyer did this, it would be a one-way ticket to disbarment and job loss. There is no forgiveness when a lawyer commits a felony, especially one that requires dishonesty as an element of the crime.

For Quinnipiac not to terminate this woman immediately is hypocritical and absurd. Quinnipiac's students - many of whom have a very hard time finding jobs even if they are ethical saints - may be rejected for character and fitness reasons if they have something as benign as consumer debt. I have no doubt that Quinnipiac would waste no time kicking a student out of school if that student conspired to commit $126,000 worth of fraud. But this administrator not only gets to keep her job, but gets to retain a prestigious title and is left in charge of student enrollment.

Sweet Georgia Brown, this woman belongs in jail, not administering the affairs of a professional school. But then again, I guess maybe conspiring to defraud people may make one more qualified to help run a law school given the creative accounting used to keep luring in federally-backed loan dollars.

Sunday, March 13, 2011

This Week in Law Professor Justice

Three stories today about teachers in the legal profession getting into disciplinary matters.

First up, we have Quinnipiac assistant dean Mary Ellen Durso, who was "sentenced to three years of probation and six months of home confinement for her role in a scheme to defraud a mortgage lender and for filing false tax returns." The damage? $126,000. That's right, kids, if you're black and you deal a few thousand in drugs, you're going to prison. If you're an executive or administrator and you defraud people for ten times as much, you get home confinement. Brilliant.

Second, we have Widener professor Lawrence Connell, who I wrote about last month when he got in trouble for apparently doing what professors every do when he used the dean's name in some absurd hypos. Thankfully, it appears the faculty committee has some sense as they've recommended against firing him.

In an interesting twist, it seems Prof. Connell is actively investigating and plans to go after the students who denounced him:
"We're trying to figure out who those two students are right now. We've got it narrowed down to three," [Connell's attorney] said. "We can sue the students for defamation in state court immediately. We're not going to sit back and be a punching bag on this."
My desire for morbid entertainment has me hoping this will continue. Third-tier professor v. a few third-tier students who were probably annoyed they got B-'s on the curve. Has promise.

Third, we have George Washington adjunct lecturer Richard Lieberman, who was arrested by U.S. Customs authorities on six counts of child exploitation:
According to the charges, between Aug. 11 and Aug. 25, 2010, Mr. Lieberman used the Internet to sexually entice those he believed were two different girls under the age of 16 years. In fact, the charges said, he was engaging in online conversations with two undercover agents in Florida posing as 10 and 13-year-old girls.

Mr. Lieberman is accused of sending the “13-year-old girl” an image of a naked man, engaging in a sexually explicit conversation with the “10-year-old girl” and sending her website links to images of male and female genitalia.

GWU has already deleted his faculty profile (innocent until proven guilty, eh?), but if you go soon enough, you can see it on google cache.

Richard D. Lieberman is a principal in the Washington, D.C. firm of McCarthy, Sweeney & Harkaway, P.C., and has been a government contracts attorney since 1988, concentrating on counseling government contracts clients, claims, bid protests, criminal investigations, audits, contract compliance programs, Federal Supply (multiple award) Schedule contracts and debarment proceedings. He is a former deputy inspector general and assistant inspector general of the Department of Defense, where he was involved in the planning and execution of internal auditing, contract auditing, investigations and inspections. He also served as a professional staff member of the U.S. Senate Appropriations Committee and a budget analyst in the Office of the Department of Defense Comptroller.
Emphasis added. Again, innocent until proven guilty, but I'm not exactly sure what you can argue if the feds have transcripts of you sending 10-year olds to dirty websites.

Here's to hoping that if his guilt is proven, he gets something worse than three years of probation.

Friday, March 11, 2011

The Power of Anonymous Speech

Among other claims that struck me as odd in the most recent Down by Lawcast, the suggestion was made that anonymous speech (which I'm going to equate to pseudonymous speech for this entry) is limited in what it can do, that credibility is lacking, etc. This is an often-spouted view that has some appeal, but is ultimately wrong.

Let's start with a lesson in history and basic theory:
Anonymous pamphlets, leaflets, brochures and even books have played an important role in the progress of mankind. Persecuted groups and sects from time to time throughout history have been able to criticize oppressive practices and laws either anonymously or not at all.

The obnoxious press licensing law of England, which was also enforced on the Colonies, was due in part to the knowledge that exposure of the names of printers, writers and distributors would lessen the circulation of literature critical of the government. The old seditious libel cases in England show the lengths to which government had to go to find out who was responsible for books that were obnoxious to the rulers.

John Lilburne was whipped, pilloried, and fined for refusing to answer questions designed to get evidence to convict him or someone else for the secret distribution of books in England. Two Puritan Ministers, John Penry and John Udal, were sentenced to death on charges that they were responsible for writing, printing or publishing books.

Before the Revolutionary War colonial patriots frequently had to conceal their authorship or distribution of literature that easily could have brought down on them prosecutions by English-controlled courts. Along about that time, the Letters of Junius were written, and the identity of their author is unknown to this day. Even the Federalist Papers, written in favor of the adoption of our Constitution, were published under fictitious names.

It is plain that anonymity has sometimes been assumed for the most constructive purposes.
--Talley v. California (1960) (paragraph breaks added)
"Don't underestimate the common man. People are intelligent enough to evaluate the source of an anonymous writing. They can see it is anonymous. They know it is anonymous. They can evaluate its anonymity along with its message, as long as they are permitted, as they must be, to read that message. And then, once they have done so, it is for them to decide what is `responsible', what is valuable, and what is truth."
--McInteyre v. Ohio Elections Commission (1995), f.11 (quoting New York v. Duryea).

Anonymous speech can be worthless, of course. But it can also move mountains.

The whole point of using anonymous speech is partly for protection against backlash, true, but in a less cynical description, one may describe the purpose as completely removing criticisms unrelated to the content. A true wordsmith, or believer in a worthy political cause, would want the focus to be on the content and not the speaker.

A signature, however, is irrelevant to content unless some type of expertise, inside knowledge, or personal experience is claimed. In the alternative, one may include a signature in order to gain regard for themselves or to try and bolster their credibility by attaching their name to it. In trying to build and use goodwill for his name, an author is ultimately engaging in a business move, but 95% of the time, the attachment of the name is irrelevant to the content therein.

Rather, attaching one's real name is an authorial decision as significant as any of the substantive content. It binds one's own personal characteristics with the speech and invites both ad hominem attacks and for the listener to give more credence to the words by who's speaking them.

In other words, because this choice alters how most people perceive the speech, it's wrong that we expect everyone to give their name to content before completely discrediting it, just as it's wrong to mandate that everyone say "God bless America" at the end of their speech. That reaction - to discredit anonymous speech when all other variables are equal - is driven by the power-elites who always want someone to hold accountable, to prevent whistle-blowers and others who want to speak truth without having their words unduly jeopardized, either by ad hominem or by their own persecution (at which point the speaker becomes the issue and not the content of his words - see, e.g., the HUAC hearings as an example of this).

Of course such a view invites fringe lunatics to write anonymously, but as the judge noted above, readers are not stupid. If someone writes "buy Microsoft stock, will shoot up 200% tomorrow," no one would believe them, but that's not because it was anonymous, but rather because there's no grounds to believe what it says. The quote could be "Joe Hargish says to buy Microsoft stock, will shoot up 200% tomorrow" and the result would be the same. If it's "Joe Hargish, analyst at Goldman Sachs, says to buy Microsoft," now we have a grounds for credibility.

But the point is that a name is not the only grounds for credibility. You can also gain credibility by having incredibly rational arguments or by presenting a volume of verifiable facts. And a name isn't grounds for credibility itself. For example, let's say you read this:
Let me go to hell, that's all I ask, and go on cursing them there, and them look down and hear me, that might take some of the shine off their bliss.
And I tell you that Glen Beck said it on last night's show. Most people would discard it as rambling anger. But what if I told you Samuel Beckett actually wrote it. Now most people would probably think it's something literary, give a whole new meaning to "them." Anonymous speech wants to avoid this whole evaluative process.

In so-called "scamblogging," anonymous speech has been central to propagating the message. To my knowledge, only two hardcore "scambloggers" have been front and center with their real identities: Scott Bullock of the now-defunct Big Debt, Small Law and Kimber Russell, who, if I recall correctly, "came out" late summer or early fall of 2010. Nando at TTR neither hides his identity nor expressly posts it to the world, but it can be found fairly easily. Other than that (someone correct me if I'm wrong), the scambloggiest of scambloggers remain more or less unknown. Loyola2L, Esq. Never, JD Underdog, Exposing the Law School Scam, Fluster Clucked, Jobless Juris Doctor, "Angel" and "Hardknocks" at BIDER, Jobless Juris Doctor, and Knut at First Tier Toilet, I'm pretty sure these are all anonymous.

I will posit here that, contrary to what Kimber suggested, the scamblog movement only has had its successes because the latter group chose anonymity as a theme.

Law is notoriously elitist, tiered, and approached with a view that "I am better than that person." When people found out Scott Bullock was a Seton Hall graduate, the response was that he should have gone somewhere nicer. But such allegations can't hit someone like Jobless Juris Doctor without making a series of assumptions, and indeed the assumptions become more difficult when (a) the number of anonymous angry bloggers increases and (b) some of the bloggers, like Knut and Angel, claim to be first-tier graduates.

The anonymity thus gave a solidarity and an ambiguity about what class of people was being affected by the "scam," and because a broad range of personalities had been adversely affected by going to law school enough to make blogs about it, the shared claim - that law school is a losing investment - became more credible. You didn't need names to achieve that effect, which is clearly shown by the number of people who have been deterred from going to law school as a result of reading them. And that, after all, was the point.

This is precisely the type of situation that calls for anonymous speech as a powerful tool for change. And it did bring change.

Law school applications dropped 12%. LSAT takers were down by a similar amount. For both of those, you generally prepare at least two or three months in advance. So anything influencing change needed to be present earlier, in November and December.

The much-ballyhooed New York Times article came out on January 8. But because early admission deadlines are generally December 1/15 or January 1, that can't have affected early admission, and the odds that people read an article and suddenly dropped applying to law school when they'd already done all the work seems remote.

Rather, that precipitous drop from the mid-2010 highs had to come from somewhere, and that "somewhere," seems, to me, to come from saturation of these blogs. Whether they have a name on them or not seems irrelevant, since blogs like TTR regularly link to news articles and connect them together with the common thesis: that law school is a losing investment.

If Kimber wants to believe that her 2-3 months of being "out" prior to the number of LSAT takers dropping had a disproportionate effect compared to her anonymous peers, I suppose she's free to do so even if there's no proof that such is true.

But looking at a simple causal chain, the only reason that administrators and other institutional players are willing to talk about change - including giving Kimber the time of day - is that law school applications and LSAT takers are down. If law schools were still pulling in customers at the click they were a year ago, it would be much easier for the ABA to say nothing was fundamentally wrong or in need of change. But because the "scambloggers" created awareness, which caused a drastic drop in customers, now everyone is all-too-willing to change. Law School Transparency was a decent idea, but it would have accomplished nothing without the angry anonymous crowd corroborating its claim and actually deterring people from applying for that $160k job track.

For Kimber to now claim that anonymous speech can't change things is disingenuous. It already has, and it will continue to do so. For if the law schools won't publish accurate data, the most believable perspective may actually come from the collective knowledge of anonymous bloggers, That, if given enough time, will cause actual law applicants to weigh the risks of going to law school where they would if they had accurate data from the schools themselves. And with that, the number of qualified applicants will continue to drop and law schools will be forced (by capitalism, a force greater than personal identity) to lower tuition, lower class sizes, or close. Likewise, USNWR is not changing anything because they got a pleasant phone call from a real person or because LST made a request; they're changing things because their integrity as a news magazine has been under under assault by their collusion with law schools' "Enron-like accounting standards." You can talk to them until they're blue in the face, but until their goodwill is jeopardized, there's no incentive whatsoever for them to do anything.

Those results can come about entirely from well-written, well-placed anonymous speech and it is simply wrong to claim otherwise. Anonymous speech helped convinced a nation to adopt our Constitution against considerable opposition. I think it can handle changing the law school structure and, in fact, it has.

Massive UNLV Budget Cuts, Law School Will Jack Tuition; No Law Faculty Harmed

The University of Nevada-Las Vegas is facing severe budget cuts:
To meet proposed budget cuts, UNLV would eliminate 33 degree programs with more than 2,000 students in them, killing 315 jobs, UNLV President Neal Smatresk told school employees and students Tuesday.
...
Philosophy, Women's Studies and Social Work would go under Smatresk's proposal, which would ultimately require approval from the higher education system's Board of Regents.
When you have a university willing to sacrifice entire disciplines at the altar of "fiscal responsibility," you know something has gone terribly, terribly wrong. Philosophy is an essential subject, indeed the foundation of many other subjects (putting the "Ph" in PhD"), including law. (side note: it's nice to see UNLV will continue its mid-major athletic existence even while sacrificing its ****ing low-cost philosophy department; I'm a huge sports fan, but c'mon!).

Of course, given such drastic measures, these cuts will go down to the The Boyd School of Law, which is ranked 78th according to the latest and greatest USNWR rankings. And the President is concerned, according to Legal Skills Prof Blog (also cited on the faculty alliance page, below):
These additional increases [in tuition] will undermine the Law School's successful formula and render it a mediocre institution.
"Mediocre, n., Moderate to inferior in quality; ordinary. See Synonyms at average."

What is the Boyd School now, if not mediocre? This is not Boston U. we're talking about. Of course, it's also not Thomas Cooley. But UNLV frankly can't drop that far. It's the only law school in Nevada, meaning it has a virtual monopoly over the students who most want to go there. And it's not like Nevada is unique in its severe budget troubles and the desperate need for cuts or tax increases no one wants.

And furthermore, what is the law school going to do, faced with these budget cuts?

From their Faculty Alliance blog:
Tuition increases will be used to cover the cuts. This will bring tuition increase totals more than triple the cost of just three years ago.
Yikes. In an age when law school demand is dropping, these counter-revolutionaries are going to raise tuition even further, as if students continuing to come are a foregone conclusion.

And according to this, despite this perilous situation, they're not cutting a single dollar of law professor salaries.

Look at this salary list from 2008:

Douglas Grant, Prof. of Law: $176,910.48
Joan Howarth, Prof. of Law: $170,468.67
Jeff Stempel, Prof. of Law: $169,206.54
John White, Prof. of Law and Dean: $167,423.65
Elaine Shoben, Prof. of Law: $164,341.98
Christopher Blakesley: Prof. of Law: $163,068.00

And so on. By the way, the cost of living in Las Vegas, Nevada is about 50-60% of what it is in New York. A salary of $160k in Nevada is similar to a salary of about $288k in New York.

Yet, with the state budget in peril and the flagship University possibly dumping its philosophy department, the school of law has chosen to drastically increase tuition rather than cut faculty positions. Tenured professors are going to get the unceremonious axe and these charlatans - in a class of people who often espouse this drivel about "public service" and "social justice" - won't take a pay-cut or see one of their own go, instead choosing to saddle the burden on students who they know will probably come to UNLV anyway.

This is absolutely deplorable, immoral decision-making. The dental school is cutting $1.3 million in salaries, but the law school can't spare a buck and would rather send tuition skyrocketing, which will inevitably put students who are actually dedicated to legal study deeper in debt.

Christ, the a public university is going to completely wipe out important programs (if you're a state institution, you should have a social work department), sending numerous professors into unemployment and the entire law faculty will continue living as comfortably as they did yesterday. They're like gluttons who eat a fourth meal while people starve next door, and if this proposal goes through, the law faculty who went along with it have no standing to tell anyone about "justice."

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

On "Scamblogging"

I wrote this a few nights nights ago. It might be out-of-date in internet time, but to be honest I'm low on sleep and alternative content (and in no mood to look for some), so here you go, as-is from my rough draft.

I've never viewed myself as a "scamblogger," even though I associate this blog's editorial point-of-view way more with blogs like TTR and BIDER than with Above the Law. There are many reasons why I chose to avoid such a direct path. For one, I don't feel like I have "standing" to be a true scamblogger because I have yet to graduate, much less be unemployed; my anger and what misery I carry come from a slightly different angle. Second, I've never liked the term "scamblogger," even when I was just a casual reader of these blogs last spring and summer, as I've never though law school was a "scam" even though, in retrospect, I probably should have chosen a different path with my recent life. And third, I was sort-of late to the party in terms of relaying raw anger about being screwed or even just exposing reality. Instead, if I wanted this blog to stand out and to have a purpose, I realized it needed to broaden the scope past just being pissed off at the system

So I tried - and try - to make this blog more in the vein of a rational, somewhat-objective commentary, sort-of in the same class as LSTB and similar sites. I picked the blog name with the belief that blogs like these needed to be more focused on the future, on positive solutions, on fixing problems, on pushing things like bankruptcy reform.

However, this is not to accuse "scambloggers" like Nando, JJD, or Knut of not wanting these things, nor of neglecting to promote them. If I understand things correctly, none of them nor their defunct peers chose the name "scamblogger." And I don't think any of them would seriously argue that there's a vast conspiracy among law deans, or that law school is a dead-ringer analog to three-card monte, or any of the other ridiculous straw men that get thrown around.

And on the same token, I've never found anything wrong with raw anger, whether expressed through scat metaphor, frank vulgarity, oozing sarcasm, or straight-up "I'm pissed."

Because here's the all-to-obvious rub: people react to arguments differently. Some people exhibit Spock-like rationality at all times and presenting something in an "in your face" style has no effect on them. Others simply won't get it unless you draw them a visual, and unless you convey your anger effectively, people whose view of the world is filtered through emotions will find you ineffective.

In fact, I can't think of a significant successful social movement that succeeded and was lacking either rational, intellectual discussion and populist, attention-grabbing, "in your face" imagery. The American Revolution had both. So did the Civil Rights movement and the woman's rights movement and the progressives and - heck - even the modern conservative movement.

This is not to say scamblogging has the social importance of any of those. Scamblogging isn't even a "movement," it's merely a push towards awareness (although it could certainly be part of a broader student justice movement). But if people who are running nationwide, historically-relevant political swings are okay with spreading their message through "in your face" metaphors, then I think it just might work for telling people law school ain't what it's cracked up to be, too.

Although some people may be repulsed by that approach to argumentation, it isn't like that style is the only source to find skepticism of the system. And it isn't like Nando at TTR isn't providing sources and facts to back up his harsh opinions and revolting visuals.

--------------------------------

When I first started leaving comments on these blogs and was pondering setting up a shop of my own, the first three I always read were TTR, BIDER, and Shilling Me Softly. Not to say others weren't good, but I thought those three complimented each other nicely, and so they were the names I usually told others to check out.

To her credit, Kimber Russell has done quite a bit in the last six months to bring attention to the issues of escalating tuition, increasing debt loads, lawyer oversupply, misleading advertising, etc. She worked hard shaping the New York Times article and I think the fact that she's "public" and not merely pseudonymous gave slightly more credibility to the message.

But, to cut to the chase, I was disheartened to see Kimber publish a piece explicitly divorcing herself from other "scambloggers."
I am herewith renouncing the title "scamblogger" to take up the less angry-sounding mantle of the plain old "blawger".

For some time now, it has been clear to me that for all the rhetorical power carried by the phrase "law school scam", the moniker is misleading, especially to those who have only been introduced to the notion that law school is not a guaranteed return on investment. The term "scam" is fraught with multifarious meanings, all of which are too bombastic to truly encompass what is a very complex situation.
Yeah, okay, this isn't really a new revelation - to anyone - so why make a big production of it? Why not merely change the focus of your blog? It's not like anyone really sees it as a major shift to go from "scamblogger" to "blawger" (and is THAT term supposed to get people to take one seriously?).
From here on out, my mission--in addition to keeping the SMS Crew entertained and informed--will be to advocate for a meaningful reformation of the American legal education industry.
How exactly is this a change? Did Kimber's previous mission not involve reforming the legal education industry? Do the "scambloggers" not want to see legal education reform? And what's this "SMS Crew" stuff? Is that really any different than a media demagogue (e.g. Rush Limbaugh) giving his legion of followers a catchy name? But I digress; she explains more in the comments:
[I]t has become increasingly apparent that as a true movement that can appeal to a wide general audience, we cannot be viewed as the online equivalent of a pitchfork-wielding, torch-bearing angry mob.

...[I]t is hard to create a legitimate and credible movement when one of its apparent "leaders" has become the Glenn Beck of scambloggers.
First of all, as I said earlier, scamblogging isn't a "movement," it's a push for awareness, and lighting a torch lets people know you're on the lawn. But more importantly, if you don't want to be seen as part of a "pitchfork-wielding, torch-bearing" mob, the response isn't to say "I'm not part of the mob." The real response is to actually put down the torch and the pitchfork, which Kimber seems to be doing anyway. I would advise her to get a new website and redirect SMS traffic to it, but in any event people can take you seriously even if they don't take the "mob" seriously.

But it's not like there's even a "mob" here. Nando ain't no Glen Beck, and I fail to see how his existence threatens actual change. Are there seriously people who say "I agree with your position, but that asshole from Third Tier Drake just ruins everything?" No, of course not. That's absurd. Either people believe what you're telling them or they don't. If they tell you they can't take you seriously because a non-present third-party has an archive of fecal matter jpegs that he connects to lower-rung law schools, they weren't going to take you seriously, anyway. No one so sensitive would have the fortitude to actually affect meaningful change.

I obviously agree with Kimber's "new" focus. I've tried something similar since this blog's inception. Look at the title I chose. But at the same time, it's a bad idea to create division without a valid reason. Nando and the other "scambloggers" are going to do their thing no matter what Kimber does. She could have merely rebranded her blog and changed its focus, which she's been doing the last two months anyway. Instead, she chose to "herewith renounce" the word "scamblogger" as if it were some monumental schism, of newfound maturity breaking away from a dirty rotten past.

You almost never see Republican strategists criticizing people like Limbaugh or Beck, even if they think that such shows de-legitimize certain Republican goals. Why? Because when you're trying to get a message out, you take all the help you can get and it's poor form to turn your back. As Knut has pointed out, SMS needed blogs like TTR to gain an initial readership. And looking over the brief history of this thing, I can't imagine Kimber ever sees the New York Times without the foundation of bile.

And so it's not like the so-called "scambloggers" really work against her. Their mission - to spread awareness - is identical to hers, since awareness is a prerequisite to problem-solving. She seems to believe it's time to "quit bitching" and move to working with the people in power. People like Nando disagree.

But disagreement is no cause for denouncement. If you want people to take you seriously as a reformer, just act like a serious reformer. And for the record, I'm not sure that serious reformers call out their allies, or that they post cheap jpegs like "In Soviet Russia, Law School Enters You," or that they maintain a podcast that regularly utilizes the word "douchebag" and the phrase "WTF, ABA."

The grand point here is that there's really no sharp line between "scamblogger" and "blawger." You can call a blog that works to reform the legal education process any name you want, but it's still a blog that works to reform the legal education process. SMS will be SMS and Nando will be Nando. There's no reason to unnecessarily piss people off if you're all on the same side in trying to get the message out there. Heck, if you really care about the message - and not the person giving it - the medium should become irrelevant.

In the end, all you can control is yourself. I don't fully agree with all Nando's techniques. There's parts of other blogs that I just don't get, including SMS. But that's no reason for me to call them out and say I disagree with them and no one will take me seriously if I'm associated with them. That accomplishes nothing; actually, it's a regression. And if one really wants to make progress, purposeful regressions and meaningless schisms seems a very poor way to do it.

Monday, March 7, 2011

Yes, Sally, the Mechanization of White Collar Jobs Can Be Easier than that of Blue Collar Jobs

From Paul Krugman's article today on education in the New York Times:
Computers, they pointed out, excel at routine tasks, “cognitive and manual tasks that can be accomplished by following explicit rules.” Therefore, any routine task — a category that includes many white-collar, nonmanual jobs — is in the firing line. Conversely, jobs that can’t be carried out by following explicit rules — a category that includes many kinds of manual labor, from truck drivers to janitors — will tend to grow even in the face of technological progress.

And here’s the thing: Most of the manual labor still being done in our economy seems to be of the kind that’s hard to automate....

And research by my Princeton colleagues Alan Blinder and Alan Krueger suggests that high-wage jobs performed by highly educated workers are, if anything, more “offshorable” than jobs done by low-paid, less-educated workers.
This makes intuitive sense, doesn't it? Most white-collar jobs have historically been premised on knowledge. Anyone can move boxes around a warehouse or change the oil in a car, but only a select few could navigate a personal injury claim or handle accounting books because of the specialized intellectual abilities involved. But computers are better at storing and retrieving knowledge than they are at making physical environmental adjustments.

A few months ago, I got into an argument with someone who claimed that the answer to the U.S.'s future was more intensive education, to essentially out-school the Chinese, Indians, etc., by promoting math and sciences education. I asked him point-blank what he would do if he were starting out at 18 today rather than at 58. Without hesitation, he said "engineering, just as I did back then."

The problem, of course, is that economies change and what "worked" 40 years ago doesn't necessarily work today. Although engineers seem better off than young lawyers, I know many an engineering grad my own age who was told to get a master's after believing a B.S. would land them a set-for-life job. And given that much of engineering is following explicit rules to produce well-designed products, I imagine we'll see computerized engineers long before we see computerized janitors.

Education is a fantastic normative goal, but we have to collectively realize that it has finite (and shrinking) returns economically. Because it benefits our democracy to have educated and hard-worked people, even if they can't all have jobs that require education, we also have to take steps to prevent citizens from being penalized for their intelligence or education, but that, I believe, is a much larger issue deserving of another entry entirely.

Sunday, March 6, 2011

Pure Speculation on Robo-Lawyering and the Future

So the New York Times published an article yesterday on E-discovery/document review software that has the potential to reduce the need for "armies" of attorneys. Other blogs (see JJD and LSTB) have covered this already and I really don't want to discuss the article so much as just share some non-expert thoughts on the long-term future.

Basically, although I see this as a tool that will sharply decrease entry-level and document review work in the near-term future, in the long-run I see this type of technology as a major threat to the current legal order, specifically to the "BigLaw" business model.

Let me start with a wider lens. I'm no Marxist in the political sense, but sometimes it's difficult to discard Karl Marx's material way of viewing the world, at least its basic sociological principles. For example, it's hard to completely discredit his focus on materialism as a historical determinant, e.g.:
In acquiring new productive forces men change their mode of production; and in changing their mode of production, in changing the way of earning their living, they change all their social relations. The hand-mill gives you society with the feudal lord; the steam-mill, society with the industrial capitalist.

The same men who establish their social relations in conformity with the material productivity, produce also principles, ideas, and categories, in conformity with their social relations.

Thus the ideas, these categories, are as little eternal as the relations they express. They are historical and transitory products. There is a continual movement of growth in productive forces, of destruction in social relations, of formation in ideas; the only immutable thing is the abstraction of movement – mors immortalis.

It's a gross over-simplification of complex society, but at the core there's some truth to it. Look no further than a basic and hackneyed evaluation of how people gained wealth and power over time. In the feudal ages in Europe, land ownership determined virtually everything. It was the one singular avenue to wealth. You either had land or, in one way or another, you leached off someone who did. But over time, technology brought other avenues of wealth. Security and improved transportation allowed a genuine merchant class to develop. With it came the roots of modern banking, whose centers sprang up along the most common routes of commerce. Then came the industrial revolution and suddenly there were at least four major ways to get to the top of the economic pyramid: land, commerce, production, and banking. And of course, the lawyer class developed along side all of this in order to sort out the quagmires that developed in post-feudal society.

Fast-forward to the 20th century and the possible routes to wealth increased exponentially. Advances in financial markets allowed people to earn entirely derivative wealth. The basic recording of audiovisual performances made what was once a temporal experience into intellectual property that made entire industries. Suddenly, knowledge, too, in the form biochemical reactions or software processes, became a billion-dollar, wealth-creating business.

I say all this only to suggest the following: technology, historically, has increased possible avenues to wealth, not taken them away, which is why it should not necessarily be feared here. Land still makes one money; it just doesn't give one the proportionate power it did 800 years ago; heck, ask the farmers who still somehow own their own land, it doesn't even give the power it did 100 years ago.

So, moving back to the topic at the outset, let's look at why BigLaw is the way it is today. A cursory view of the last fifty years or so suggests to me that BigLaw largely developed in response to ever-increasingly multinational corporations who preferred working with law firms who had offices in multiple major metropolitan areas. Large, multinational corporations more or less needed large, multinational law firms. The prestigious ones that got the choice corporate accounts merged when feasible to reduce economies of scale and - voila! - you had firms with hundreds of attorneys who raked in the top business and could charge prime rates precisely because there weren't many places that could offer the manpower of elite graduates, places like Jones Day or Skadden Arps or Winstron & Strawn.

There are, of course, other reasons the major corporations consistently go to the larger firms, prestige and experience being at the top of the list. But to Fortune 500 companies, cutting expenses to free up cash and improve profitability is a religion. I've heard from multiple sources that BigLaw has been under increased pressure the last few years to cut billing hours. I have no reason to doubt that.

And these corporations - with knowledgeable in-house counsel, many of whom sit on their boards and in their executive committee - will certainly have knowledge of this technology's existence. And since more than one company is currently developing this technology, there's no reason to think it won't be priced competitively, which will allow a broader range of firms access to the technology. Will Joe Schuck operating a sole proprietorship out of his basement be able to get it? Probably not, but firms with 25+ attorneys would find it advantageous to streamline their discovery process.

If the software can reduce what used to be done by 100 attorneys into manageable work for 2-3, the manpower advantages of the BigLaw model are dead on arrival. Because of the software, smaller firms can take on cases that resource restrictions would have prevented them from taking previously. Things like class actions can be handled by smaller and smaller firms.

Because the range of activities firms can take on will increase, real competition for legal business will increase with new entrants into the market. The result should be more robust price competition.

Of course, BigLaw will still have two key advantages, as noted above: its history of experience with large corporate matters and its prestige of being armored with "cream of the crop" lawyers. And of course, they can continue to charge more as a result of both of these competitive advantages, but the status quo cannot continue. Fortune 500 companies will simply not pay exorbitant rates if another lawyer down the street has the exact same technology and is charging a fraction of the hourly rate. Much of the prestige difference comes from the illusion of paying elite associates and staff attorneys to do the grunt work; if a computer is doing that grunt work, why would anyone pay the extra?

And with a reduction in resource costs, many BigLaw attorneys will be less likely to stick around. If a BigLaw partner has a great relationship with two or three key clients, that partner is far more likely to splinter off and set up a new firm and take his clients with him if there is software that can reduce the manpower advantage of bigger firms.

I'll admit I'm no expert, but it just seems to me that with technology like this, an extra key to wealth has been created by allowing a whole new class of firm into the market for bigger and bigger clients. If they can offer similar services at half the cost, most companies will go with the discount provider. At the very least, the price pressures should end escalating relative salaries and bonuses because the pseudo-oligopoly over high-end legal services will be broken. If I were a BigLaw partner, I'd be concerned that more firms and attorneys could do what I do, that an army of elite attorneys may become as worthless and unnecessary as an army of elite barber college graduates, and that America's successful corporations will start shopping around if I don't slice rates, and my take-home profit.

Of course, thousands of young attorneys will suffer from a collapsing marketplace for their services. That's a major problem. But transformative technology doesn't just hit the lowly; it also opens up new avenues for others to achieve wealth. It shakes the top of the pyramid, too, and if more firms can take on complex litigation, it'll help them jump into higher levels of law and in the end it's better for all of us by increasing competition and cutting litigation costs for large American companies.